The summer behind us confirmed the importance of solar and wind power plants for the stability of the power system – this was the conclusion of the panel dedicated to the electricity market, held at the RES SERBIA 2026 Conference.

Speaking about current developments, participants assessed that Serbia’s market still has room for new renewable projects, while the region in the long term faces an energy deficit.

Panelists also discussed the low electricity prices in the first quarter, the impact of the CBAM mechanism on the regional market, the development of battery storage in Bulgaria, as well as the challenges faced by Croatia, despite being included in market coupling.

Participants of the panel “The New Architecture of the Electricity Market: From Generation to System Flexibility” included Miloš Mladenović, Managing Director of SEEPEX; Ante Tojčić, CEO of Fractal; Marko Janković, Head of Electricity Market Affairs and Regulation at CWP Europe; Davor Pupovac, Director of Market Analysis and Risk Management in Electricity Trading at EPS; and Ioanna Barouni, Senior Research Associate at Aurora Energy Research. The panel was moderated by Marijan Rančić, Business Development Director at New Energy Solutions.

“In August, Solar and Wind Sustained Us”

Miloš Mladenović, General Director of SEEPEX, assessed that the enthusiasm of solar project owners has waned, but emphasized that in the long run there will always be demand for energy.

He noted that in the first quarter the electricity market adjusted due to the implementation of CBAM, with significant price differences reaching up to €60, while he considered developments during July and August particularly indicative. As one of the key market signals, he highlighted the weakening correlation between the Serbian and Hungarian spot markets.

At the same time, he said, recent production restrictions have called into question long‑standing assumptions about the reliability of conventional energy sources, including nuclear power.

– I would advise that the enthusiasm of solar plant owners be restored. In August, solar and wind sustained us. Without solar plants in Greece and Hungary and wind farms in Germany, we would have been in much greater difficulty – Mladenović assessed.

He added that a megawatt‑hour produced from coal cannot be valued the same as one produced from renewable energy sources.

Mladenović emphasized that the impact of CBAM goes beyond price differences, as it affects the broader investment environment, the financial sustainability of projects, and overall market dynamics.

He identified the first quarter of 2029 as the earliest realistic deadline for electricity market coupling.

– In June we expected the green light, and we prepared the framework to be ready for 2028, but due to the legal and regulatory framework, this is not possible – Mladenović noted, adding that work is also underway on regulatory changes to enable co‑location projects that combine wind, solar, and energy storage to become feasible and financially sustainable.

How Bulgaria Developed Battery Storage

Ioanna Barouni, Senior Research Associate at Aurora Energy Research, spoke about the rapid development of battery storage in Bulgaria, which has significantly increased its capacity over the past two years.

Barouni assessed that Bulgaria is an exceptional case, with its success driven by an appropriate regulatory framework and state support through auctions, which attracted a large number of battery storage projects.

– No one expected them to manage it on time, but they had a ready regulatory framework, as well as support that enabled investors to install larger batteries. Their system operator was also involved in the process – Barouni said.

She added that it is not only crucial to install batteries wherever possible, but also to choose their appropriate location, taking into account grid stability and proximity to consumption. Responding to the question of what Serbia lacks in order to replicate Bulgaria’s success, Barouni identified regulation as the key obstacle.

– Regulations must be practical, enabling investors to access all possible revenue streams for batteries. Commercial banks are somewhat more open to taking risks when it comes to batteries, but they need stability and predictable income – she emphasized.

Barouni also noted that Serbia does not have the same access to EU funds as member states, but certain sources of financing can still be utilized.

“Serbia’s Market Is Not Saturated with Renewables”

Marko Janković, Head of Electricity Market Affairs and Regulation at CWP Europe, assessed that CBAM will generate additional costs, but noted that there are other factors in the region that can significantly influence the new electricity market model in Southeast Europe.

Speaking about how investors can respond to the emergence of negative electricity prices, Janković pointed out that an important role can be played by positioning solar panels outside the standard southern orientation, which provides a production peak around noon.

– Positioning panels in an east–west orientation is an excellent measure, as it produces lower output but provides two peaks, around 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. “If we take that in combination with prices, which are most negative around noon, this production profile may even generate better revenue, and that is what banks want to see – Janković said.

He added that wind generation is less affected by the cannibalization effect, the situation in which simultaneous production from a large number of plants reduces the market price of electricity. However, he warned that any technology can be affected by this phenomenon if there is too much of it.

As one of the biggest challenges for Serbia, Janković highlighted electricity market coupling and the limitations arising from available transmission capacity.

– Serbia’s market in terms of renewables is not saturated – there is plenty of room, and I expect segmentation between projects that will be realized and those that will not. Energy is needed, and we must not fall behind – Janković emphasized.

Low Electricity Prices in the First Quarter

Davor Pupovac, Director of Market Analysis and Risk Management in Electricity Trading at EPS, assessed that low electricity prices in the first quarter were influenced by favorable hydrological conditions and a surplus of energy in the region, which, as he noted, also resulted from CBAM.

– We took advantage of the situation with low prices. We did not export because everyone was selling, so it was expected that the price would fall to its lowest level. Paradoxically, the lowest price was in February. We purchased a significant amount of energy at negative prices, which was particularly pronounced in April and May – Pupovac said.

Speaking about the impact of CBAM, Pupovac said that this mechanism has led to reduced market liquidity and price differences across markets.

– We would prefer if CBAM did not exist, so that we could optimize our position across multiple markets – he emphasized.

According to him, current market conditions are highly complex, both for investors and for those developing projects. He assessed that it is difficult to predict long‑term price movements, which is why flexibility and the ability to manage different energy sources are crucial for all participants.

Pupovac assessed that EPS plays a dominant role in various segments of the market, from balancing to purchasing, but stressed that it has not hindered market development; rather, it has contributed to the realization of projects. As a challenge for balancing, he singled out the lack of market coupling in the region, which would allow for greater integration of variable renewable energy sources.

Strong Interest in Stand‑Alone Batteries in Croatia

Negative electricity prices – which occur when renewable generation exceeds consumption and producers in certain situations pay consumers to take electricity, have been present in Croatia for three years, said Ante Tojčić, CEO of Fractal.

– Two years ago, we had 190 hours with negative prices; now we already have more than 200 hours. These are good market signals we see that both traders and investors are adapting, with production being curtailed, both from solar plants and wind farms – Tojčić noted.

He assessed that the answer to negative prices lies in electricity storage and greater flexibility. He added that in Croatia several hybrid plants are connected to the distribution grid, but there are challenges that complicate the realization of new projects.

– In Croatia there is enormous interest in stand‑alone batteries, but we handicapped ourselves with a connection blockade, so projects are not happening. This is an opportunity that remains unused – Tojčić emphasized.

In his view, blocking projects is not good for the country, since battery systems will inevitably be built.

– If they are built in Greece and Hungary, they will shut down the business model here. In the long run, we are in an energy deficit, a megawatt‑hour will always have value. Both in Serbia and across the region, there is a chronic lack of energy – Tojčić concluded.

The RES SERBIA 2026 Conference, held over two days in Vrdnik, gathered decision‑makers, investors, and representatives of the financial, legal, and energy sectors from Serbia and 30 countries worldwide. The conference was organized for the sixth consecutive year by the Association Renewable Energy Sources of Serbia.